[GWSG] Value of regs; Hansen on balance; DOE supports solar; floating pv; solar backlog; grid maps for solar

[Tilley, Al]

1.  A PNAS study observes that tipping points may be conditional upon regulatory actions.  That is, a transition to runaway warming might be avoided by regulated changes in human behavior.  The conclusion is to beware of blocking regulation.  http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/2031088/human_rules_may_determine_environmental_tipping_points/index.html?source=r_science

2.  In a new unpublished paper, James Hansen and two associates emphasize the necessity to calculate more precisely the energy imbalance of the earth.  Improvements would include accurate assessment of aerosols in climate calculations.  The authors estimate that aerosols are now masking approximately 50% of the additional heat supplied by atmospheric gasses (page 2); others have said 25%.  Also, existing models do not deal well with ocean mixing, necessary to calculate how earth will reach equilibrium after added heat.  The discussion of sea level rise on pages 12-14 uses historical data to indicate about 20 meters of sea level rise for each degree rise in global temperature.  Beginning with section 3, page 18, the paper argues that existing climate models yield unrealistically slow responses to forcing.  A discussion of implications begins on page 43.  Approximately 350 ppm of CO2 would stabilize the climate.  Releases of methane from rotting permafrost and methane hydrates could frustrate attempts to achieve that goal.  The rate of sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the next few years.  It may be necessary to achieve a slightly negative energy imbalance to stabilize sea levels.       http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110415_EnergyImbalancePaper.pdf

3.  The US Department of Energy is supporting two German companies with $2.1 in loan guarantees in a project to build a record 1,000 megawatt solar thermal plant in California.  The DOE has also provided  over $1 billion in support for each of two other CA projects.  The state has adopted a target of 1/3 renewable energy by 2020.  http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/18/us-usa-solar-doe-idUSTRE73H5FU20110418  The troughs in the first new plant employ simplified, cheaper, and more efficient construction technology, and are air cooled.  That cuts water use by 90%.  http://www.energy.gov/news/10276.htm  The DOE has provided $21 billion in loan guarantees for 22 clean energy projects in 14 states.  http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110418/ap_on_bi_ge/us_california_solar_project

4.  Ponds can provide convenient surfaces for solar arrays.  When solar arrays are coupled with hydroelectric reservoirs, the dam acts as a power backup for times when the solar array is not producing, and the water cools the unit, increasing its efficiency.  Droughts can interrupt hydropower, but not solar.   http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/20/business/energy-environment/20float.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha25

5.  The backlog of orders for solar panels has reached 12 gigawatts in the US.  The American market doubled in 2010 and is expected to double again this year.  http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/04/12gw-solar-pv-backlog-in-us-confirms-growth-promise??cmpid=WNL-Wednesday-April20-2011

6.  Some California utilities are publishing maps indicating where in their grid demand is high and infrastructure stressed.  In those areas distributed solar is especially welcome and perhaps supported by the utility with minimal connection costs.  http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2011/04/if-you-like-solar-tell-your-utility-to-publish-this-map?cmpid=WNL-Wednesday-April20-2011
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