[GWSG] IEA on DAI; Obama on climate; 350.org on Obama; cc causes diabetes; drought index faulty

[Tilley, Al]

1.  The International Energy Agency calculates that two thirds of the fossil fuels now in reserve must stay in the ground if we are to avoid runaway (that is, catastrophic) climate change.  The temperature at which positive feedbacks take over and we lose the power to mitigate the increasing heat is called the point of Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (DAI point).  James Hansen and others, and now the IEA, have said that to avoid the DAI point we must leave most of our known reserves of fossil fuels unused.  We should cease fretting about peak oil, new pipelines, and opening the Arctic (or any other region) to fossil fuel companies.    We should also cease our growing fossil fuel subsidies and get on with a transition to a sustainable way of life.  http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2012/nov/12/iea-report-peak-oil  Carbon Tracker, a London-based analytical team, calculates that burning only 20% of fossil fuels now in reserve would put us over 2° of warming, which until a few years ago was taken to be the DAI point.  (See the Carbon Bubble tab.)    http://www.carbontracker.org/   Since most climate scientists now consider that the DAI point is likely to be lower, 1.5°, the usable reserves should be set lower than the Carbon Tracker’s 1/5 of current reserves.  We are truly at the point for strenuous action if we are to escape the climate trap.

2.  President Obama said in his November 14 news conference that he intends to carry out a program of public education on climate, and that he intends to exercise personal leadership on the issue. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/14/obama-climate-change-second-term   If the President’s education program does not include making it entirely clear what passing the DAI point would mean, people will not understand why we must do what we must.

3.  President Obama does not convey to me that he understands the DAI concept himself, nor the urgency it lends to the project of limiting heating.  The people at 350.org do understand, and have some questions for him.    http://world.350.org/vermont/questions-for-the-president/

4.  The current worldwide epidemic of type 2 diabetes is linked to global warming through malnutrition.  http://www.guardian.co.uk/sustainable-business/blog/diabetes-diseases-climate-change-inequality

5.  The Palmer Drought Severity Index has been used to measure the association between global warming and drought.  A study published in Nature finds the index inadequate to the task.  http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iE3mCoxedy53IGTaYLICWTFIYtBw?docId=CNG.5f5d4d61e54889235995304ae07eb89d.6a1
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