[GWSG] CH4 on time; dueling slr projections; CA drought; UF-St. Aug, slr; no Galileos; Aus. warning; cost of solar; FHA+PACE

[Tilley, Al]

1.  Joe Romm addresses the usual statement that methane is 20 or 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas.  Atmospheric CH4 oxidizes in a chain leading to CO2 and water vapor, so its heating power weakens over time.  On the 20-year timescale which is most relevant to our situation methane is 86 times more potent than carbon dioxide. The 20-25 ppm of CO2 equivalence estimate (which should actually be around 32) is the 100 year figure, but there is no reason to prefer that scale.  http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/20/3692726/epa-wrong-methanes-warming-impact/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cptop3



2.  A recent modelling of Antarctic contributions to sea level rise is consistent with IPCC projections, but the recent paper by James Hansen et al. anticipates considerably greater rise.  One difference in the modeling between the two is that Hansen's team included hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure. (The Hansen paper also considers historical data.  It is not clear that the other paper models ice sheet disintegration at all, as opposed to melting.)   http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/08/20/scientists-are-still-trying-to-figure-out-how-fast-we-could-lose-west-antarctica/



3.  Global warming has worsened the CA drought, most likely by 15-20%.  A permanent drought is likely about 2060, according to a new study.  (Compared to what I assumed, this study brings welcome news.)  http://e360.yale.edu/digest/global_warming_has_worsened_california_drought_by_roughly_25_percent/4514/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+YaleEnvironment360+%28Yale+Environment+360%29



4.  The U of FL has agreed to help St. Augustine plan for sea level rise.  It is the most direct public move any local government in this region has made toward comprehensive planning.  http://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/news/local/uf-study-rising-sea-levels-st-augustine/nnQft/



5.  A team has replicated the research behind 38 contrarian papers, looking for a Galileo of astute opposition to the 97% consensus on climate change.  Instead, they found a range of fallacies-cherry picking, violating known physical constraints, ignoring data, and curve fitting.  http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/aug/25/heres-what-happens-when-you-try-to-replicate-climate-contrarian-papers



6.  Australia's Climate Council has issued a new report warning that we must decarbonize by mid-century, and observing that the scientific case is increasingly solid behind 1.5C as a warming maximum for a stable climate.  http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/2c-not-safe-world-must-completely-decarbonise-in-30-years-67940



7.  By ignoring the cost of distribution, arguments for the economies of scale of utility solar vs. rooftop solar overstate the case for utility scale solar energy.  http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/economies-of-scale-why-small-solar-is-better-than-big-solar-15602



8.  The Federal Housing Authority is developing guideline which will have the effect of making PACE funding available to all homeowners, allowing them to obtain FHA mortgages while maintaining the
PACE funding of solar arrays.  http://cleantechnica.com/2015/08/24/pace-will-available-us-homeowners/?utm_source=Cleantechnica+News&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=aa32d46962-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_term=0_b9b83ee7eb-aa32d46962-331994013  ?

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://lists.unf.edu/pipermail/gwsg/attachments/20150825/b76133b1/attachment.html