[GWSG] Record hot year so far; 3m midcentury?; climate costs; halfway measures; 1.5C vs. 2C; earth on her day

Tilley, Al atilley at unf.edu
Fri Apr 22 09:57:07 EDT 2016

1.  We have had a record eleven straight months of record global heat.  http://bigstory.ap.org/article/ab11daf0c73a4cd0be97096fdc6843e0/earths-hot-streak-continues-record-11-months?utm_source=Inside+Climate+News&utm_campaign=88114cd17b-Today_s_Climate12_10_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_29c928ffb5-88114cd17b-326454481

2.  Peter Sinclair cautions us to be careful about the story from the NOAA official at the RIMS conference that warns of the possibility of a three-meter rise in sea level by 2050-60.  Sinclair posts an update from Margaret Davidson of NOAA which makes it clear that she was expressing her personal opinion that proper future guidance would be to expect "2-3 meters in the next 50 years."    https://climatecrocks.com/2016/04/21/caution-new-sea-level-story-may-be-a-step-too-far/

It appears that the senior adviser in the area of coastal resilience for NOAA, the agency charged with determining projections for sea level rise, announced, in concert with a leader of the insurance industry, in a formal address to the assembled leaders of that industry, not a NOAA position on this most sensitive topic but her personal opinion.   I've noticed that if you extrapolate from the slr acceleration of the last decade (not a safe bet) you get worse than she said by midcentury.  If you assume a more modest decadal doubling in slr you get about the three meters she is said to have named in the article.  She's right that planning based on the current minimum NOAA projection of three feet by 2100 is likely to be worthless-and therefore, as she says, expensive.  NOAA needs to issue a revised projection for the rest of the century, with an account of how it was derived.

3.  A new study finds that developing nations would need $4.1 trillion by 2030 to implement the emissions cuts they have named in the Paris agreement, far more than has been pledged to them.  http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/apr/22/climate-change-study-poor-countries-4tn-2030-avert-catastrophe-paris-agreement

4.  Poorer nations probably cannot be compensated for the damages they will suffer from climate change.  Perhaps we should consider some halfway measures to support them.  http://theconversation.com/how-should-we-compensate-poor-countries-for-loss-and-damage-from-climate-change-55612?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20April%2022%202016%20-%204723&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20April%2022%202016%20-%204723+CID_3d5b2bf2eb3928bc842017ea74187d02&utm_source=campaign_monitor_us&utm_term=How%20should%20we%20compensate%20poor%20countries%20for%20loss%20and%20damage%20from%20climate%20change

5.  The difference between 1.5C of warming and 2C would be a major degradation of the climate, according to a new study.  http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/21/study-reveals-greater-climate-impacts-of-2c-temperature-rise-heatwaves

6.  Representatives of more than 150 nations are marking Earth Day by signing the Paris agreement.  The earth seems to be underlining the urgency for action with a record hurricane, record bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, record heat, and record sea level rise.   https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/20/as-nations-gather-to-sign-climate-accord-planet-reaches-new-warming-heights/?

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