[GWSG] Fossil price fix; new E Asian climate; missing water; in the air?; early fall leaves; watching Thwaites

[Tilley, Al]

1. The fossil fuel industry is in a bind. If prices for gas and oil remain low, so will profits. If prices rise, they will lose the market more readily to cheap renewables—and profits will drop. https://climatecrocks.com/2020/11/25/volatile-prices-for-oil-gas-will-be-part-of-energy-transition/

2. A tree ring study reveals that Inner East Asia may have settled into a hotter, drier climate. https://phys.org/news/2020-11-irreversible-hotter-drier-climate-east.html?utm_source=nwletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily-nwletter

3. More than 3 billion people are facing water shortages, according to a UN study. The amount of fresh water available per person has fallen by a fifth in the last twenty years.  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/26/more-than-3-billion-people-affected-by-water-shortages-data-shows?utm_campaign=Carbon%20Brief%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=20201127&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20Daily

4. I presume that the missing water has gone to the atmosphere, which holds more water vapor as it heats. That produces a positive feedback: more heat means more water vapor, which means more heat. The role of water vapor in the climate system is often distorted by the devious and the uninformed. Water vapor, which cycles through the atmosphere in a matter of days, basically acts as an amplifier for the heat trapped by additional CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Skeptical Science has a nicely compact piece on the role of water vapor in determining the climate. Notice the Intermediate explanation tab.  https://skepticalscience.com//water-vapor-greenhouse-gas.htm<https://skepticalscience.com/water-vapor-greenhouse-gas.htm>

5. As the atmosphere heats, photosynthesis in trees and herbaceous plants increases. You might expect that the leaves would turn later in the fall as warm temperatures stretch farther into the year. Instead, leaves fall earlier. It seems that plants have a budget for the amount of carbon they can fix annually. When that budget is reached, they cease photosynthesis for the year. https://phys.org/news/2020-11-climate-autumn-colour-earlierhere.html

6. It is often said by scientists, though not often assimilated by the rest of us, that sea level rise is likely to be nonlinear. It does little good to extrapolate from current rates (as is often done), even from rates of current acceleration (more rarely done). Historically, sea level rise has gone by fits and starts. One area now in fits and threatening starts is Thwaites Glacier of the West Antarctic. A brief video offers interviews from specialists in the area attesting that we might be able to moderate sea level rise from Thwaites by cutting our emissions substantially. If Thwaites is sufficiently destabilized already we may not be able to influence its course. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/11/can-shearing-of-thwaites-glacier-slow-or-stop-if-humans-control-greenhouse-gas-emissions/?ct=t(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_WEEKLY_112320)

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