[GWSG] US-China pact; wise rewilding; projected heating; COP 26 friction; reactions; my take

[Tilley, Al]

1. The US and China have agreed to cooperate in achieving a limit of 1.5C on heating. https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/11/10/us-china-declaration-climate/

2. As we rewild 30% of the earth’s surface by 2030, we must remember that that surface is undergoing great change and plan accordingly if we are to establish successful ecosystems. https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-climate-change-could-put-new-conservation-areas-in-jeopardy

3. Carbon Brief makes sense of estimates of future heating under current planning. Some projections seem to conflict but are made on diverse bases. Generally, the future does not threaten to be as hot as it did, and much depends on the specific steps we take to implement our stated intentions. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-do-cop26-promises-keep-global-warming-below-2c?utm_campaign=Carbon%20Brief%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=20211111&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20Daily

4. By the time you read this COP 26 will have ended with approval of a text listing agreements. It will still be worth taking a look at the issues the delegates faced as they worked on the final draft. A central problem is the debt, if any, owed by the industrialized nations, largely responsible for the climate crisis, to the poorer nations which are suffering some of the most dire consequences. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/13/few-changes-as-cop26-draft-text-homes-in-on-make-or-break-issues

5. And now that COP 26 had ended (since the previous item was posted—it ended last night, in fact) the reactions are being recorded. They range from outrage and despair (“utter betrayal”) to measured hope (we “imperfectly yet doggedly and collectively began digging ourselves out of our mess”) to celebration (“we are in fact closer than we have ever been before to avoiding climate chaos and securing cleaner air, safer water and a healthier planet”). https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2021/nov/14/cop26-live-leaders-hail-glasgow-climate-pact-but-activists-say-summit-failed

6. My take: the most significant developments have taken place during but somewhat outside the conference, and a couple were occasioned by it. 1. The two largest emitters, China and the US, have pledged to limit heating to 1.5C. That means that, among other measures, China must dismantle first its coal plans and then its plants, and the US must cease taking its orders from fossil fuel interests.  2. Over 100 nations have pledged to cut methane emissions 30% by 2030. It may prove impossible to meet that target while maintaining a viable commercial methane industry, which will be brought to face its long-term lies about leakage and the dwindling economics of using methane for peaking power. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/cop26-climate-summit-11-02-21/h_3114c57fc352e714d8d78d01b358b4c2#:~:text=Around%20100%20nations%20pledge%20to%20cut%20methane%20emissions%20by%2030%25%20by%202030,-From%20CNN's%20Vasco&text=%E2%80%9CWe%20cannot%20wait%20for%202050,and%20keep%201.5%20degrees%20Celsius 3. Norwegian scientists have developed a process to double the efficiency of solar cells at little additional costs with nanowires of gallium arsenide grown on top of the standard silicon cells. The effect, if the process is commercialized as predicted, would be to cut the cost of solar power in half. The effect of that would be the end of fossil fuels for commercial power. https://www.nanowerk.com/nanotechnology-news2/newsid=59085.php

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