[GWSG] Polar melt; global current instability; a tipping desert; the ISEW; what works

[Tilley, Al]

1. Satellite estimates of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets show acceleration—20% increase in yearly loss from Greenland 2010-20, a seven-fold increase since the 1990s. Acceleration in the Antarctic is slower—64% since the 1990s. Through this study and others “we have come to learn that ice responds rapidly to our changing climate." Sea level rise projections are likely to increase.  https://phys.org/news/2023-04-devastating-greenland-antarctic-ice-sheets.html

2. Authorities from the IPCC on down have advised that the collapse of the AMOC—indeed of the whole global oceanic conveyor belt—is unlikely this century. Most of the attention has been on Greenland. A new study of the Antarctic finds that a collapse driven by a failure of bottom-water formation there is indeed likely this century, following  a 42% decline by 2050—more than double the decline predicted from studies of Greenland.  Once the conveyor belt is halted, it is unlikely to start again until melting of the polar ice sheets ends, perhaps centuries in the future. The article discusses some of the implications. https://e360.yale.edu/features/climate-change-ocean-circulation-collapse-antarctica

3. I received several reactions to the dilemma I described in the last news list. The general opinion is that I should not ignore significant developments, no matter how disappointingly reactionary, so long as I don’t ignore the encouraging ones. I shall follow that thoughtful advice.
Bruce Melton sent a response based on the altered mission of his organization and his recent trip to the Chihuahuan Desert of the Big Bend Region of West Texas. I am passing it along here as a sort of complement to the polar stories above. We are far down the road to consequences we had thought to be in the hazy future. If you follow his Instagram link below you will get a set of photos and observations from the Big Bend trip. If you keep going down, you will see what a busy person Bruce has been for the past five years. Bruce:
I will not suggest you halt running stories on future emissions reductions, but my nonprofit is rapidly moving to a new mission that focuses on emergency action, spurred by Earth systems collapses that are activated prematurely, when they were not supposed to activate until 5 C warming, where the only thing that can stabilize tipping is cooling back to within the evolutionary boundaries of our systems, and future emissions  strategies cannot cool earth in time frames that matter to tipping. The weather catastrophes are directly related to Earth systems tipping collapses and are now of primary importance. Emissions reductions strategies are of course good for sustainability but we are in an entirely new era of climate change. Once collapses are activated, they do not self-restore unless the perturbation to the systems that caused the collapses to begin is removed.  With collapses now ongoing, emissions reductions constitute only a very small part of restoring our climate and sadly, these collapses also mean natural systems sequestration is degraded, eliminated or reversed. Right now it is very likely that emissions from the Amazon, Canadian forests and permafrost alone are similar to all emissions globally from transportation and these collapse feedback emissions have just begun.
I have just returned from our latest filming trip, this time to continue work in the Chihuahuan Desert of the Big Bend Region of West Texas. Last year's major drought pulse has reactivated bark beetles in the predominant low altitude desert forest plant ocotillo. These attacks have now increased to widespread from localized and now in the worst areas half of all individuals have been killed. Also in the low desert there is substantial mortality of creosote bush, acacia, and thorned cactus. At high altitudes the bark beetles and simple water stress mortality have abated after peaking six or eight years ago, but in traditional forested areas impact tends to lag drought by a year or two as insect populations and disease vectors grow with increased water stress that is long-term in long-lived plants. So next year we will likely see a resurgence of mortality in pinyon pine and juniper species. The mortality in the high altitude desert forest from the last ten years is likely around 30 percent of all individuals, based on my own anecdotal observations. And then there is the cascading cycle of impacts where one of the largest fires to ever burn in the high altitude desert occurred in 2021 creating major mortality across almost all of the high altitude desert forest that remains in all of the Chihuahuan Desert (in the US at least). Undoubtedly the Chihuahuan Region is now emitting instead of sequestering and when the desert flips, we know it is likely other ecologies across the globe have flipped too -- even without evidence, though recent publishing is certainly showing the evidence.
Yet we move blindly along assuming natural systems can help, when in reality they are now on an irreversible path to runaway natural feedback emissions as collapses do not self-restore unless the perturbation to the system that caused the collapse is removed. How is it that this simple bit of 10th grade biology has escaped the world's smartest people?
So thanks for continuing to run the catastrophe news. This is how we create greater awareness of the deadly path of 1.5 C, and the only solution to prevent irreversible and runaway feedback emissions of restoration.
Check out our Instagram logs from this trip - links below - over half way finished with entries now.
Instagram Logs - https://www.instagram.com/bruce.c.melton/
Instagram Viewer for those without an Instagram account - https://gramhir.com/profile/bruce.c.melton/6508819497
or here - https://www.picuki.com/profile/bruce.c.melton
For more photography of climate change impacts across North America, see https://ClimateChangePhoto.org<https://climatechangephoto.org/>

4. We are going to need a million new electricians—soon—for the energy transition. Only 2% of electricians are women. That will have to change, which should help close the wage gap. “Barriers to more women in the industry include widespread harassment and abuse, lack of visibility, exclusionary unions, childcare and a lack of support for caregivers.” The IRA with its widespread electrification of the economy should put gender discrimination under enough pressure to cause a shift. Perhaps the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers will need a new name. Racism in the trades is due for a few hits, too.   https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/20/us-electricians-shortage-recruit-women

5. An article in PNAS analyzed the effect of different interventions on people’s climate mitigation actions. The most effective is social comparison; the least, education. Thanks to Mary Emerson-Smith for the story. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-makes-people-act-on-climate-change-according-to-behavioral-science/

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