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<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>Mountain glaciers and ice caps have lost 30% less ice in 2003-10 than previously thought.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>The study did not include Greenland or the Antarctic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></font></font><a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2012/0208/Ice-caps-not-shrinking-as-much-as-once-thought-new-data-show"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2012/0208/Ice-caps-not-shrinking-as-much-as-once-thought-new-data-show</font></a></p>
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<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">2.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>Louisiana has established a planning figure of 3.3 feet of sea level rise in the next century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span></font></font><a href="http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/02/louisiana_officials_establish.html"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2012/02/louisiana_officials_establish.html</font></a></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">3.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>Risk and Response: Sea Level Rise Summit, The Future of Florida and the Coast will convene in Boca Raton June 21-22.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>It is coordinated by the Florida Center for Environmental Studies at FL Atlantic U.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>The flyer features pictures of South Florida streets in normal state and under water at high tide.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span></font></font><a href="http://www.ces.fau.edu/SLR2012?sid=54"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.ces.fau.edu/SLR2012?sid=54</font></a></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">4.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>I have answered the Regional Council’s call for information pertinent to planning for climate change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>I thought some of the list members might be interested.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>I know that some will think of things I have missed; I hope that they will either forward them to the Council or to me for transmission.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>The Council’s link:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></font></font><a href="http://www.nefrc.org/FCV/FCV-Action-Item_Climate%20Change%20Info.htm"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.nefrc.org/FCV/FCV-Action-Item_Climate%20Change%20Info.htm</font></a></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt"><font face="Calibri">Climate Change Information Relevant to Planning for Northeast Florida<o:p></o:p></font></span></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">Climate Change in General<o:p></o:p></font></font></b></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri">The best general introduction to climate change is Tim Flannery,
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">The Weather Makers</i> (New York: Grove Press, 2006).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>It equips the reader to understand the issues discussed in technical literature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>The best general technical discussion of the topic is Spencer Weart, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">
The Discovery of Global Warming</i> (revised and expanded edition), (Cambridge: Harvard UP, 2008), which has an extensive associated web site.</font></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">Regional Planning Resources<o:p></o:p></font></font></b></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">NOAA has provided a guide to regional climate planning:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span></font></font><a href="http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/climate/adaptation.html"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://coastalmanagement.noaa.gov/climate/adaptation.html</font></a><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>Georgetown Law has furnished a guide for governments wishing to adapt to sea level rise:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span></font></font><a href="http://www.georgetownclimate.org/resources/adaptation-tool-kit-sea-level-rise-and-coastal-land-use"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.georgetownclimate.org/resources/adaptation-tool-kit-sea-level-rise-and-coastal-land-use</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri">
</font></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">Two regional studies for Southeast Florida are available.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>They deal with many of the issues which face our region.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>The Miami-Dade Advisory Task Force on Climate Change has released its recommendations:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span></font></font><a href="http://www.miamidade.gov/derm/climatechange/taskforce.asp"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.miamidade.gov/derm/climatechange/taskforce.asp</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri">
</font></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri">In December 2011 The Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact released its report for public comment:
</font><a href="http://www.southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/</font></a></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri"></font></span> </p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">Online databases for climate planning are being maintained at Florida Institute of Technology:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span></font></font><a href="http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://research.fit.edu/sealevelriselibrary/</font></a><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>and at Georgetown:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></font></font><a href="http://www.georgetownclimate.org/"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.georgetownclimate.org/</font></a><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"> . NOAA
maintains a list of resources for climate planning for the Caribbean and the Southeast:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span></font></font><a href="http://collaborate.csc.noaa.gov/climateadaptation/pages/scceocp.aspx"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://collaborate.csc.noaa.gov/climateadaptation/pages/scceocp.aspx</font></a><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>.</font></font></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">Sea Level Rise in Northeast Florida<o:p></o:p></font></font></b></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">Regional projections for precipitation and temperature rise (which are being refined) do not show Northeast Florida suffering great changes in this century, though they may
be sufficient to threaten such significant elements as tree cover.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>The climate change impact of greatest immediate local concern is likely to be sea level rise, with its threat to coastal property, infrastructure such as sewer systems and water and energy supply, the natural environment, and salination of the aquifer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>IPCC AR4 on North America:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></font></font><a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter14.pdf"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter14.pdf</font></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"><font size="3" face="Calibri">
</font></span></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">The two South Florida reports listed above use different figures for sea level rise, and other studies use yet different figures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>To an extent, sea level rise beyond midcentury will depend on the strength of mitigation efforts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>The IPCC uses a range of scenarios to cover likely courses of action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>A major factor in sea level rise projections is the contribution of polar ice sheets, especially Greenland and the West Antarctic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>A recent study by James Hansen and Makiko Sato concludes from a study of historical data that a rise of 16.5 feet this century could result from pursuing business as usual, rather than restricting carbon emissions (pages 14-17):<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span></font></font><a href="http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf</font></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"><font size="3" face="Calibri">
</font></span></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>The Miami-Dade Task Force strategy of using minimal figures as sea level rise projections (at least 1.5 feet by midcentury, at least
3-5 by the century’s end) makes some sense, but we may need to base planning on what we choose to be likely figures rather than minimum figures.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>The Climate Change Compact uses lower figures furnished by the Army Corps of Engineers, 3-7 inches by 2030 and 9-24 inches by 2060:
</font></font><a href="http://www.southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/documents/SLR.pdf"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/documents/SLR.pdf</font></a><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>(Like the IPCC AR4, the Corps seems not to use contributions from the polar ice sheets in its projections.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>One lesson which might be derived from the sea level rise disagreements is that it is more significant to arrive at an understanding of the implications of a given level of sea level rise than to try to pin down exactly when that might happen, and plan
to revisit the schedule periodically to apply new understanding, as the Southeast Florida Climate Change Compact proposes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span></font></font></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">According to Orrin Pilkey and Rob Young,
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">The Rising Sea</i> (Washington: Island Press, 2009), barrier islands are exceedingly difficult, even impossible, to stabilize against sea level rise (Chapters 8 and 9).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>Our coastal communities are on such islands.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>(Pilkey and Young recommend a planning figure of seven feet of sea level rise this century.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span></font></font></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">From a look at the rough elevation figures for Florida south of Lake Okeechobee it is obvious that by about any responsible sea level rise projections which include the polar
ice sheets that area will be inundated this century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>Northeast Florida has much more of a future.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>High lands to the west of a line drawn from Hilliard to Palatka and a plateau running from Arlington south to below Palm Coast provide two stable locales for the immigration of communities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</span>Rough elevation figures:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></font></font><a href="http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Special:SeaLevel"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Special:SeaLevel</font></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"><font size="3" face="Calibri">
</font></span></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Allen Tilley</font></p>
<p style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><a href="mailto:atilley@unf.edu"><font color="#0000ff" size="3" face="Calibri">atilley@unf.edu</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri">
</font></p>
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