[GWSG] EIA's bad vision; roof mirrors; Lima talks; price on C?; redesigned wind turbines

[Tilley, Al]

1.  We depend on the Energy Information Agency for accurate forecasts.  They have spectacularly overestimated the use of fossil fuels and as spectacularly underestimated development of renewables.  Greenpeace and Amory Lovins have come much closer to accurate projection.   http://climatecrocks.com/2014/11/26/energy-establishment-stupendously-spectacularly-chronically-woefully-comically-wrong-on-energy-trends/

2.  15% of the energy in a building goes for air conditioning.  A mirror on the roof radiating heat back into space will reduce energy use significantly, saving 100MWh yearly on a three story building.  http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/26/mirrors-air-conditioning-heat-space  A large scale project of reflecting sunlight back into space could have disastrous consequences, worsening floods and droughts.  http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/26/geoengineering-could-offer-solution-last-resort-climate-change  General use of mirrors to lower energy use for air conditioning is projected in the first article to have little impact on climate.  Still, if it were to be coupled with a program of white roofs for residences, we would need to watch for impacts.

3.  The US position on international emissions controls is that they should be based on intended nationally determined contributions (INDC).  The model is the recent climate agreement between the US and China, based not on a single negotiated program but on programs devised independently by the two nations.  The European Union has announced its own intended contributions.  A meeting in Paris next December is expected to orchestrate INDCs and such programs as the EU’s.  A meeting of representatives from 190 nations in Lima, Peru, which continues next week will attempt to formulate rules about how the INDCs are couched and what they should cover.  One goal for the year ahead is likely to be a global system yielding a price or prices on carbon.    http://www.climatecentral.org/news/whats-at-stake-in-lima-climate-talks-18388  The EU position is that the yield of the coming year’s talks must be legally binding targets, which the US opposes, equipped as we are with a Republican legislature.  It is a challenge to harmonize the EU position with the setting of INDCs.  http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/27/un-climate-change-deal-must-have-legally-binding-targets-says-eu  ABC provides a useful overview of the Lima talks.  http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/rare-optimism-ahead-climate-talks-lima-27246840

4.  Globally orchestrated carbon markets or carbon taxes (if not a unified price on carbon) would be a centrally significant outcome of the year’s negotiations.  A set of socialist governments in Latin America is the most likely source of opposition to such a market system.  http://www.rtcc.org/2014/11/26/call-for-un-climate-deal-to-support-carbon-market-links/

5.  Researchers at the U of Wollongong are developing a wind turbine which produces power at 1/3 the cost—and that is already as low as 1.5 cents/kwh in the US.  The new design also promises to be 1,000 times more efficient, which I suppose points toward improved power at low wind speed, opening up new areas to wind power.  http://climatecrocks.com/2014/11/28/next-wind-turbines-at-13-the-cost/
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