[GWSG] Imploding corps.; lower targets; wind off NJ; Greenland overview; G'land breakup; agreement status?

[Tilley, Al]

1.  John Schellnhuber, a German climate scientist, concludes that if a critical number of nations carry through on their commitments to the UN, the fossil fuel industry will implode.  "The avalanche will start because ultimately nothing can compete with renewables." http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/09/clean-energy-is-key-successful-climate-deal-in-paris-says-top-scientist



2.  The 43 member nations of the Climate Vulnerable Forum have asked other nations to join them in setting a target of 1.5C of warming in place of the current UN target of 2C, which was set politically.  Scientifically, 1.5C is better suited to the state of our knowledge.    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2015/11/11/climate-vulnerable-governments-urge-all-countries-to-make-tough-co2-cuts/  Many (including James Hansen) urge that the target be lower still because accepting a moderate risk of catastrophic outcomes is poor risk management, and, as the graph in the article linked above makes clear, a target of 1.5C leaves us at moderate levels of risk.  The counter argument is usually couched in terms of what is practical.  Avoiding catastrophe is practical.  We can do what we must.  That seems to entail accepting a target of no more than 350 ppm, which would put us into the white on the graph.  Safe and scalable technologies for moving there from our current 400 ppm are described in Flannery's Atmosphere of Hope.  I look forward to arguments along this line when we have committed to some goal and need to revise it.



3.  The Interior Department has granted leases on enough area 7-21 miles off the New Jersey coast to produce 3,400 megawatts of wind power.  https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/interior-department-auctions-344000-acres-offshore-new-jersey-wind-energy-development



4.  The NY Times magazine's "The Secrets in Greenland's Ice Sheets" features interviews and background information on the project of gauging how quickly the polar ice sheets will melt.  The story defaults to minimum projections of melt, but does refer to some of the quicker possibilities in providing a broad overview.  (Reg. req'd.)    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/magazine/the-secrets-in-greenlands-ice-sheets.html?emc=edit_tnt_20151112&nlid=43628374&tntemail0=y&_r=0#<http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/magazine/the-secrets-in-greenlands-ice-sheets.html?emc=edit_tnt_20151112&nlid=43628374&tntemail0=y&_r=0>



5.  Zachariae Istrom, a major glacier in Greenland, has begun to break up.  Another large glacier to its north is also melting rapidly and could also begin breaking up in the near future.  Together they constitute 12% of the Greenland ice sheet.  http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/collapsing-greenland-glacier-could-raise-sea-levels-by-half-a-metre-say-scientists  Much more detail from the WA Post's Chris Mooney.  Cheerful ads from Shell provide an emotionally surreal counterpoint to the article.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/11/12/scientists-say-greenland-just-opened-up-a-major-new-floodgate-of-ice-into-the-ocean/



6.  An argument over the status of the agreement to be reached in the Paris talks has emerged into the open, with the EU arguing that the agreement must be legally binding and the US maintaining that it should be voluntary.   The US does not expect a Republican congress to approve any agreement and anticipates that a legally binding one would have to go before congress.  http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/paris-climate-deal-must-be-legally-binding-eu-tells-john-kerry  ?

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