[GWSG] Slipping fossils; rising costs of cc; rapid SLR in SF; missing NOAA data; U Miami report; FAU report on SLR impact

Tilley, Al atilley at unf.edu
Tue Apr 5 13:59:42 EDT 2016

1.  One impediment to the energy transition is that governments lose revenues they would have received from new fossil fuel enterprises-mines, power plants, wells, and so on.  But as the prices of fossil fuels fall, their subsidies continue, and the damage they do in terms of health and climate increase.  It is becoming much less valuable for governments to continue supporting them.  We need to prepare for an economy without fossil fuels.  The article focusses on Australian coal and gas development.  http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/05/cost-of-stopping-new-coal-and-gas-projects-in-freefall-costings-reveal

2.  The first modeling of the economic impact of climate change finds that unchecked warming would lead to losses of $2.5 tn, and perhaps a lot more.  http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/04/climate-change-will-blow-a-25tn-hole-in-global-financial-assets-study-warns

3.  A U of Miami study indicates an average of 9 mm of sea level rise per year since 2006 (or 3.5 inches over the decade), triple the previous rate.  Another study shows that a third of Floridians have witnessed ocean flooding, and the percentage of state residents concerned about climate change is now 81%.  http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/florida/2016/04/8595696/florida-climate-change-concerns-grow-study-links-flooding-rising-sea

4.  I tried to check the 9 mm figure against the Miami tidal gauge but NOAA has ceased posting figures for that gauge, and not for others, after 1980.  I have been checking the NOAA site, and noting the missing data, for several months since reports began last year of an unusually high rise rate in the Miami area.    http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html

5.  The report itself referred to in item 3 costs $40 online, but a press release from the school confirms the figure and alludes to slowing of the Gulf Stream as the source of the discrepant rate of rise.  http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/news-events/press-releases/2016/new-study-shows-increased-flooding-accelerated-sea-level-rise-in-miami-over/

6.  If a 2011 FAU study holds in its estimate that about three to nine inches of sea level rise (on a 2010 base) would compromise up to 70% of the drainage control structures in South Florida, we must be close to widespread drainage failure in the region, with water supply difficulties in its wake.  See particularly figure six.  That means that on our doorstep is a major resettlement project for the six million people below Lake Okeechobee.    http://www.ces.fau.edu/files/projects/climate_change/SE_Florida_Resilient_Water_FAU2011.pdf  ?

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