[GWSG] UN Emissions Gap Report; email from Marrakesh; Secretary Kerry bound for Antarctic

[Tilley, Al]

1.  The UN has issued its seventh Emissions Gap Report, a comparison between current programs of action and those necessary to achieve the UN goals.  Essentially, we need to tighten controls by about 25% from predicted 2030 levels.  Figure ES1 shows the national emissions histories since 1970.  To meet the goal of limiting warming to 1.5C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2020.  Thanks to Doris Marlin for calling attention to the report.  http://web.unep.org/emissionsgap/



2.  Doris Marlin's background is in water resource management.  She is with the Unitarian Universalist Association delegation to COP 22 in Marrakesh, Morocco, and attended COP 21 in Paris.  I emailed her that the Emissions Gap Report should be of use in understanding news from there.  Her reply: "Maybe, maybe not."  She has supplied a report describing the conference:


Don't expect exciting soundbites from Marrakech -but do be excited for them to stay on task.  No distractions.  Once countries, businesses and organizations have reliable guidance for what they need to do, they can move quickly into IMPLEMENTATION.   After achieving a few successes, then ACCELERATING to even more ambitious GHG reduction strategies becomes easier.  This moves the Climate Justice needle forward.


The global political will has just advanced the Paris Agreement into force four years sooner than expected.  Now the timetable the Parties expected to have to get the essential guidance prepared is much shorter, needed much sooner, with less time to get it right.


Marrakech is about moving into "IMPLEMENTATION" of the Paris Agreement, with a focus on "ACCELERATION" of each country's Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs), or targets for GHG emission reductions.

The UNEP report underscores how critical getting to zero quickly is - because the NDCs identified so far today paint a dire picture for tomorrow.  It's a motivator for the Non-Government Actors (like private industry, cities and regions) to move faster too.


 Last week the Department of State Climate Negotiator, Jonathan Pershing and his team provided briefings on what to expect in Marrakech for many of the civil society observer groups who are paying attention to the COP 22 agenda.  This time it's about the critical task of getting the HOW of putting the Paris Agreement into practice; writing guidance and rules and doing so in a way that's fair for the 200 diverse nations that will be expected to make their NDCs reality.


In Marrakech will be the first opportunity to review and access and discuss each other's detailed NDC plans.  Among the best COP 22 outcomes will be to clearly understand the challenges that are faced in addressing and accomplishing the NDCs and use this to inform the emerging Paris Guidance.  That's what success will look like for these negotiators - making a serious dent in meaningful Paris Guidance preparation.


There will also be plenty on Climate Justice, finance, human rights, loss and damages, differentiation, Green Climate Funds and more.  A great site for the full history and up-to-date UNFCCC summaries is:  http://www.iisd.ca/enb/vol12/


Let's get this Paris Guidance playbook done, get everyone on board from church boards to state actors, and get the emissions gap closed.   Start today.  IT'S UP TO ALL OF US!  Follow all the details of COP 22 and live webcasts at: http://newsroom.unfccc.int/cop22marrakechinformationhub/



3.  Another attendee in Morocco will be Secretary of State John Kerry.  Following the election on Tuesday he plans to travel to the Antarctic on his way to COP 22.  http://www.wvgazettemail.com/news/20161104/john-kerry-plans-antarctica-trip-to-combat-climate-change  I wonder if we will get some publicity for the greatly increased expectations of sea level rise mentioned by NOAA scientist Margaret Davidson at the RIMS conference last April.?

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