[GWSG] CA's SLR planning; Honolulu's planning; planning to relocate

[Tilley, Al]

1. California has released a 2018 update of its adaptation plan. It is a guideline for planning, not a description of specific adaptation measures.  http://resources.ca.gov/docs/climate/safeguarding/update2018/safeguarding-california-plan-2018-update.pdf


California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment will be released next month. It intends to detail vulnerability to various risks by region. If it provides detail sufficient for real planning that would be a big step few governments at any level have taken. http://resources.ca.gov/climate/safeguarding/research?


San Francisco is basing its planning on a projection of 11 to 24 inches of sea level rise by 2050 and up to 122 inches by 2100. Those are apparently the new state figures in next month's report. http://www.sfexaminer.com/san-francisco-studies-impacts-sea-level-rise-state-projections-double/



2. The Mayor of Honolulu has issued a directive to all city departments and agencies to plan for 3.2 feet of sea level rise in response to a recommendation from the city's Climate Change Commission.  In combination with the Commission's report, it is a move in the right direction. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59af5d3cd7bdce7aa5c3e11f/t/5b4d607688251ba9e4b51233/1531797818272/PRESS+RELEASE+-+Mayor%27s+Directive+18-01+%287-16-18%29.pdf


The Hawai'i Sea Level Rise and Adaptation Report assesses the region's vulnerability to scenarios of sea level rise. A scenario of 1.1 feet of rise is used to model current and near-term flooding.  The report recommends that the region plan now for the 3.2 feet of rise expected by mid-century, and to be ready to increase that figure as informed estimates indicate. Detailed information on the vulnerability of infrastructure to sea level rise scenarios-for example, to what degree water supply would be compromised under specific conditions-will probably come from local public works departments and utilities.  https://climateadaptation.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/SLR-Report_Dec2017.pdf



3. Scientific American's article Surrendering to Rising Seas addresses lessons learned in carrying out a relocation program in an area which is becoming unlivable because of sea level rise. New Jersey's Blue Acres Buyout Program illustrates the barriers and possibilities. The primary factor of people's decision to sell and relocate is their sense of the general sentiment on the issue in their community.


The town of Woodbridge undertook coastal land restoration with a portion of the newly free land. The new trees and marshland will help protect the area from flooding in future storms. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/surrendering-to-rising-seas/


When we come to practice relocation on a large scale we will need some place for people to settle. Sustainable communities would be preferable to trailers (though the housing may well be modular). We are unlikely to be able to buy out people's homes at anything like current market value (which indeed will plummet anyway). The relocations will be a community effort, with community financing.

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