[GWSG] C sensitivity; migration forecasts; CH4 CCS; engineering experiment; new SLR satellites

[Tilley, Al]

1. Multiple lines of evidence lead to the conclusion that the earth is likely to experience the more and not the less severe consequences expected from a continued use of fossil fuels. That is, the climate sensitivity is at the higher end of what we had supposed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/22/climate-sensitivity-co2/

2. “The world can now expect that with every degree of temperature increase, roughly a billion people will be pushed outside the zone in which humans have lived for thousands of years.” This long piece centers on modeling of what is immediately ahead, especially for Central America, and through profiles and interviews conveys a sense of the lives at stake as more areas become uninhabitable. We in the US need to plan for greatly increased migration pressure from the south. What the piece does not do is help us imagine that at the same time we will be dealing with forced migration away from our coasts because of rising seas, and from our own areas which are becoming unbearably hot. Thanks to Bill Slaughter and Mary Emerson-Smith for suggesting the article. It well conveys the urgency of our need to plan and to act. A joint project of Pro Publica and the New York Times.  https://features.propublica.org/climate-migration/model-how-climate-refugees-move-across-continents/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dailynewsletter&utm_content=river

3. Berkeley scientists, funded by ExxonMobil, have developed a relatively cheap and efficient way to steam-strip CO2 from methane as it is used to produce power. The process consumes about 30% of the power produced and leaves the CO2 to be somehow sequestered. It does not deal with the methane leaked in mining and processing. It is being widely touted as a way to keep using gas. https://phys.org/news/2020-07-technique-capture-carbon-dioxide-greatly.html

4. Two Harvard profs are conducting a small experiment to test the effects of injecting calcium carbonate into the stratosphere. The intended consequence is temporary cooling; the experiment is also attempting to judge its own impact on the ozone shield. Not everyone is happy with even this modest experiment. https://cleantechnica.com/2020/07/24/harvard-profs-plan-geoengineering-experiment-igniting-ethics-debate/

5. The pace of global mean sea level rise has increased 50% in the last few years, from 3.2 mm/year to 4.8 mm/year. A new two-satellite system to be launched Nov. 10 will keep tabs on sea level. Copernicus Sentinel-6 is a joint EU-US project. https://phys.org/news/2020-07-sea-level-satellite-colours.html

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