[GWSG] CBS explains tipping points; Jakobshavn there; Antarctic close; gas on the run; German goals up; electric planes; IEA roadmap to 2050

[Tilley, Al]

1. A decently detailed report by CBS news represents the growing danger that the Amazon rainforest, the West Antarctic, and the Gulf Stream are at least close to their tipping point, beyond which they will have irreversibly moved to another and less benign state. The piece is an attempt to bring a general audience into the climate conversation. You can’t follow a discussion of the defects of the concept of tipping points, for example, until you know what one is supposed to be.  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-tipping-points-amazon-rainforest-antarctic-ice-gulf-stream/

2.Greenland is probably already committed to contributing 1-2 meters of sea level rise. That tipping point is for the Jakobshavn Basin; the entire ice sheet would raise levels by 7 meters. The article illustrates the difficulty and uncertainty of tipping point calculations.  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/may/17/greenland-ice-sheet-on-brink-of-major-tipping-point-says-study

3. A study published in Nature finds that the Antarctic is likely to reach its tipping p9oint within a few decades. https://phys.org/news/2021-05-antarctica-climate-catastrophic-carbon-emissions.html

4. Fossil gas is beginning to feel the heat as it is overtaken by solar and wind power. Vistra owns 36 fossil gas plants and does not plan to acquire any more. Its CEO said  “I’m hellbent on not becoming the next Blockbuster Video. ”  https://climatecrocks.com/2021/05/17/the-next-blockbuster-video-fossil-gas-soon-to-follow-coals-decline/

5. The German government has set newer, more ambitious emissions goals after a high court ruling found that the current law was “insufficient” in response to a suit brought by young activists. The new targets on a 1990 base are 60% cut by 2030, 88% by 2040, and carbon neutrality by 2045. https://phys.org/news/2021-05-germany-ambitious-climate-goals-landmark.html

6.  NASA is promoting the development of commercial electric air travel in the US within the next 15 years. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/18/electric-planes-nasa-carbon-emissions

7. The International Energy Agency advises that development of new oil and gas fields and the construction of new coal plants must stop this year if we are to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. The key pillars of decarbonization are energy efficiency, behavioral  changes, electrification, renewables, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, bioenergy, and carbon capture and storage. The IEA roadmap also features doubling the output of nuclear power by 2050. A low nuclear and low CCS pathway uses more renewables but is more costly and more risky. Internal combustion vehicles would be phased out in large cities by 2030. Renewables need to overtake coal “within five years.”    https://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables-should-overtake-coal-within-five-years-to-secure-1-5c-goal?utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20carbonbrief%20%28The%20Carbon%20Brief%29&utm_content=20210518&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner

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