[GWSG] Vulnerability studies: what we deserve to know

[Tilley, Al]

Climate Cart Issue No. 1, Vulnerability Studies (extract)

The following is an extract adapted from the first issue of a series, Climate Cart, which I prepared for the Sierra Club’s Climate Adaptation and Restoration Team, on which I serve. The purpose of the series is to provide compact, up-to-date information on aspects of the climate crisis in which local action can make a difference.

Until we know in some detail what risks we will be running, we have no basis for effective action. The Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s Sea-Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Tools and Resources: A Guide for Florida’s Local Governments, June 2015 (extended) gives a general structure for such an inquiry. https://floridadep.gov/rcp/florida-resilient-coastlines-program/documents/sea-level-rise-vulnerability-assessment-tools-0

1. Conduct an Exposure Analysis. What do we see as the coming challenges? Sea level rise? Dangerous heat? Storms and floods? Drought? Forest fires? While we may know in general what our community’s problems will be, a good vulnerability study will present detailed studies of what is in store for the period chosen for the study. The planning horizon will vary, but decadal projections for at least fifty years is usual.

2. Conduct an Impact Analysis. This should include all elements of the community; some will be at greater risk than others. The impact analysis should address all risks which are at all likely. It should address the physical, economic, and social impacts. It should include impacts which will extend beyond the study horizon. For example, if buried septic tanks or industrial waste will be compromised by flooding, the impact on the ground water and adjacent wetlands may extend well into the future.

3. Assess Adaptive Capacity. This “encourages the community to measure the degree to which it is equipped to adapt. . . through the existence of policies, structures, finances, and human resources that can assist, or already are assisting, adaption to potential changes.” Once we know what we are already equipped to do, we will be ready to develop a Climate Action Plan which will identify the resources and policies necessary to a satisfactory adaptation. We should be planning for a world we would look forward to living in.

One feature of that world needs to be an absence of new greenhouse gasses from human sources and less of what is already there in the oceans and the atmosphere. That is the task of mitigation, the necessary companion of adaptation. Ceasing to burn coal, gas, and oil must be a primary goal of climate action. So must be the adaptation to the changes we have already set in motion, and that is the concern of vulnerability studies and the resulting action plans. We may even hope to regain and restore some of what we have already lost.

Colorado’s 2015 vulnerability study gives an overview of the state’s climate risks and refers to documents, such as the state’s Water Plan and Drought Mitigation Plan, which anticipate specific actions to counter those risks. It also refers to more local vulnerability studies, such as Boulder’s.  https://dnrweblink.state.co.us/cwcb/0/doc/202146/Electronic.aspx?searchid=f02d65b3-001a-4eb5-ae79-f08bab6ac37c

CAKE, the Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange, has an enormous store of online resources, including vulnerability studies. Registration is free at cakex.org.

Citizens can play a constructive role at each of the three stages of the vulnerability study and in the action plan which should follow it.

Has an adequately detailed exposure analysis been conducted? It is not enough to say that we are faced with sea level rise, for example. How much is likely, and on what schedule? What will be the effect on buried infrastructure of a rise in ground water level (which, in coastal areas, will usually be higher than sea level)? Will significant roads be rendered impassable, isolating people from grocery stores and medical aid? Will the rising water be polluted, and if so, from what sources? All the right questions need to be asked and answered.

Not many adequate vulnerability studies have been conducted, though lame ones are common. The political and commercial pressures to avoid examining coming problems exert a constant pressure, and people generally hope that trouble might be avoided. But we deserve to know what risks we are running. Our community will suffer much more greatly than it needs to if we do not learn what is ahead. We can persistently ask for a complete vulnerability study. If an inadequately detailed one is presented, as it commonly is, we can point out the problem and ask for correction. If the plans are designed to meet the needs of the affluent and neglect the needs of others, we can say so and demand correction. If the needs of the wild are not addressed, who else will speak for it?

If you are a member of the Sierra Club or another likely group, you could suggest that they undertake a project which would result in an adequate climate vulnerability study. Civic and local government groups are likely to already be working on the issue; you could attend meetings and join the effort as opportunities afford. You could find a way to go it alone. You may find others who care and are willing to pursue proper action in your community.

Whatever you are moved to do, even if it is to find out what has been done locally and to talk with others about unmet needs, will be a move toward meeting the needs—particularly if the conversation is public, but also if the conversation results in further conversations. As we succeed, others will be encouraged to join us. Your community finally needs to know what it is in for, and finally will support your efforts to find out.

The next issue in this Climate Cart series will be on sea level rise.  Our intention is to maintain an up-to-date discussion on the following topics: vulnerability studies; sea level rise; excessive heat; floods, drought and water supply; public health; relocation programs and community rebuilding; and rewilding.

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