[GWSG] Heat vs. power; US climate history; C in concrete; HFC controls; SLR models; SLR models + history

[Tilley, Al]

1. A winter storm caused a power outage for much of Texas (thanks to the state’s failure to monitor and regulate the industry, most prominently gas power). Heat waves can also shut down the power supply, leading to lethal conditions, especially in cities and especially for the poor. A study using Atlanta, Detroit, and Phoenix found the cities vulnerable and unprepared to cope.  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/03/climate/heat-climate-health-risks.html

2. NOAA prepares regular reports on the precipitation and temperatures in the US. Since 1991 we have gotten hotter by a degree F about everywhere except the north central region. The West and Southwest have dried, and the rest has gotten a bit wetter. (The general comparison graphics are towards the bottom of the document.) https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/20210420.pdf
AP’s Seth Borenstein summarizes and reflects on the US climate history. https://phys.org/news/2021-05-america-degree-hotter-decades.html

3. Around 5% of our carbon emissions come from the manufacture of concrete. Two new approaches sequester captured carbon in the concrete itself. https://www.greenbiz.com/article/carbon-sucking-concrete-capturing-attention-and-funding

4. The hydrofluorocarbons used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gasses. A proposed EPA rule will decrease US manufacture of them by 85% in the next 15 years and bring the US into compliance with a 2016 international treaty controlling the production of HFCs. https://phys.org/news/2021-05-epa-phase-gases-refrigerators-coolants.html

5. Achieving a goal of 1.5C of heating would result in cutting this century’s sea level rise to half of what we would see under current climate commitments. https://www.carbonbrief.org/limiting-warming-to-1-5c-would-halve-land-ice-contribution-to-sea-level-rise-by-2100?utm_campaign=Carbon%20Brief%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=20210506&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20Daily
The conversation in the referenced studies seems to rest entirely on models not incorporating the historical record, which typically produces higher projections of SLR.

6. Three distinguished climate scientists advise that the historical record indicates the possibility of greatly increased SLR this century, particularly at heating beyond the 2C goal. The Antarctic is supported by archipelagoes of islands, and is actually a marine-based ice sheet subject to destabilization by ocean currents. In general the study shows that achieving the goats or 1.5C or 2C of heating will result in committed moderate sea level rise which will continue for centuries. Heating beyond those limits could bring catastrophic and continuing sea level rise.     https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-overshooting-2c-risks-rapid-and-unstoppable-sea-level-rise-from-antarctica?utm_campaign=Carbon%20Brief%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_content=20210506&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20Daily

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