[GWSG] 421 ppm CO2; a lasting La Nina; on the AMOC; budget revisions; how to achieve our targets; Biden's plans

[Tilley, Al]

1. The Mauna Loa atmospheric observatory reported a monthly atmospheric CO2 average of almost 421 ppm, 50% higher than the pre-industrial average and the highest for over 4 million years. James Hansen has recommended a target atmospheric CO2 content of 350 ppm. https://phys.org/news/2022-06-carbon-dioxide-peak-higher-pre-industrial.html

2. The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would mean, among other things, a permanent La Nina climate state. In the US, that would mean yet worse drought in the southwest.  https://theconversation.com/a-huge-atlantic-ocean-current-is-slowing-down-if-it-collapses-la-nina-could-become-the-norm-for-australia-184254

3. The article above says that a collapse may come in centuries, but a study led by Nikolas Boers of the Potsdam Institute and published in Nature Climate Change last August found that the AMOC is already destabilized and that collapse to a lower circulation state could come soon.  https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/05/climate-crisis-scientists-spot-warning-signs-of-gulf-stream-collapse
In a 50 minute video recorded in April 2021 Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute explains the AMOC, its recent weakening, and the effects of a collapse.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wFsibz5kvw

4. Climate projections are often based on CO2 alone. A U of WA “best-case scenario” study indicates that if all greenhouse gas emissions are included, we have a significantly smaller budget of carbon to release before we are committed to exceed our temperature targets. Another finding is that we will continue to experience growing heat for 5-10 years after we cease emissions.  https://phys.org/news/2022-06-emissions-shortens-timeline-paris-agreement.html

5. An impressive team has published in Science a plan for the US to achieve its target of reducing emissions 50% by 2030. We need to double clean energy on the grid from 40 to 80%. We need the majority of auto sales to be electric vehicles by 2030. Those can be accomplished at a net savings and newly generated employment with the proper package of policies. https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/954621
Inside Climate News supplies further discussion of the study. https://us2.campaign-archive.com/?e=ac4aa338ac&u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=e58021343d

6. President Biden has lifted tariffs on solar panels for two years and invoked the Defense Production Act to boost the US manufacture of solar panels, heat pumps, insulation, provisions for electric vehicles, and grid infrastructure. The effect will be to clear the supply chain so that planned activity can proceed (the tariff lift) and to jumpstart US production of goods necessary to the energy transition. That these moves will serve the two program objectives identified in the Science study referred to in the previous item is probably no accident.  https://climatecrocks.com/2022/06/06/biden-breaks-solar-logjam-rebooting-build-back-better/

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